As James detailed last week, there are a ton of important primaries tonight. Here’s when the polls close, state by state, along with the key races in each (all times Eastern):
8pm:
      Alabama (AL-02 D & R; AL-05 R)
      New Jersey (NJ-Sen D; NJ-03 R; NJ-07 R)
9pm:
      New Mexico (NM-Sen R; NM-01 D & R; NM-02 D & R; NM-03 D)
10pm:
      Iowa (IA-03 D)
11pm:
      California (CA-04 R)
Please post your predictions in the comments!
We’d also be very grateful if you could give us links to good sites which will carry the results. Thanks!
(Poll closing times courtesy The Green Papers.)
I think Frank will survive his primary tomorrow, and it will be by single digits. I see Myers winning in NJ-03, which is good for the GOP because he is the stronger candidate and from Burlington County, and Lance in NJ-07 because he has greater history and name recognition in the western/more rural parts of the district. Neither Myers nor Lance will be push-overs in the general.
I think we will see a run-off for the GOP in AL-02, which is great for us — let Love and Smith keep blasting each other.
Pearce beats Wilson in NM-Sen, Heinrich, Teague, and Lujan win our House primaries. White and Tinsley win the GOP NM-01 and 02 primaries.
McClintock wins a closer-than-expected primary against Ose in CA-04.
I predict it will be much closer than that April poll predicted. Turnout is supposed to be low (around 15%) and Fallon’s supporters will be very motivated. It will be interesting to see how many absentees the old Boz could get out to his supporters. And, with Boswell going so negative on Fallon constantly every single day and declining all 12 debate invitations, I am wondering if there will be a backlash.
Anyways, here are some links that should carry the results although I don’t know which would be the fastest. DMRegister possibly?
Iowa SOS: http://www.sos.state.ia.us/
Des Moines Register: http://www.desmoinesregister.c…
KCCI-TV: http://www.kcci.com/index.html
Monday: filing closes in Alaska; filing starts in Washington. and Oklahoma. On opening day of a three day filing period we bagged four of 5 House seats in Oklahoma plus Andrew Rice for the Senate. That filled two of Benawu’s open seats. (OK-1: Georgianna Oliver; OK-3: Frankie Robbins).
Tuesday: Primary day. Plus Closing day in MA. We will get some unopposed seats in November out of this one. The signatures have already been collected and are being inspected and maybe rejected.
Wednedsay: It’s closing day for filing in Oklahoma. And Arizona.
Thursday: who knows. Filing has technically been over since April 11 in Virginia yet some districts with district conventions are not yet listed on the Commonwealth’s site. There’s a June 10 primary guys. Colorado Republicans have yet to report the results of three congressional district assemblies to the state. Democrats took days but held them earlier.
Friday: Washington’s closing day. It is interesting to note that Dino Rossi, who has been complaining for four years about the outcome of the last gubernatorial election was not a first day filer. Christine Gregoire was.
Wilson barely pulls off a win against Pearce, even though Pearce was initially looking like he’d pull an upset against her, Domenici’s endorsement will probably give her just enough of a boost to give her the nomination. If you don’t believe me, take a look at Florida where Crist’s endorsement of McCain staved off a late push by Romney.
Once again Heather “The Undead” Wilson pulls of a win, but still gets clobbered by Udall in the fall.
I’m torn on whether I prefer Ose or McClintock to go up against Brown. If McClintock gets it, Brown can hammer him for being a carpetbagger. (What business does a guy representing Ventura County for decades have running in NorCal?) But if McClintock were to win, that would keep the Conservative Icon relevant in California politics for years to come and I’d much rather prefer a fresh new wingnut to annoy me.
Ose, a NorCal native, would probably have an easier time winning it than McClintock, seeing as he has represented nearby before and appears moderate (compared to the nutjob from Thousand Oaks). I’m sure he’d go back to being a spectacularly mediocre representative quite easily.
Pearce in New Mexico (When its close I go with the conservative in Republican politics)
Ose in CA-4
But i’m not sure that Ose can pull it out.
My predictions on this seat in my diary are based upon an Ose victory hopefully he pulls it out in a low turnout primary.
And I’m not really sure on the new mexico congressional. I hope Henrich,Wiviott,McCamley win so I’ll go with what i wish to happen.
Boswell for Iowa but rooting for Fallon.
Laughtenburg beats down Andrews like the jackass he is and he goes and takes his congressional seat back when the party in the area renominates him and replaces his name with his wive’s. (We have to primary his ass in 2010.)
And the open races are going democratic anyway, doesn’t matter.
I’m from Albuquerque and new to this posting thing so please respond and tell me what you think.
NM-1:
Heinrich should win. Lujan and Vigil (both hispanic females) are splitting their voting bloc, which is ironic because if one were to drop out, the other would have probably overtaken Heinrich (a white male). I have had an inkling for a while that Vigil and Heinrich are in this together because Vigil doesn’t really seem to want the nod. Just a hunch.
NM-2:
I hope McClamley (sp?) will win. I like him, hes a young go-getter and liberal enough for my taste. Probably too liberal for NM-2 though. Teague has some weird oil connections that I’m not to fond of but Southern NM money is made in oil. Also, he has the backing of both Lt Gov Denish (a personal friend) and recently Gov. Richardson. I predict a Teague win, which is probably good because he’ll probably have the better shot at a general election win. And McClamley will be a good boy and fall in line behind him (but with increased name recognition for a future political run).
As for the Repubs… I dunno. I hear Newman and Tinsley are neck and neck with Dunn fading fast. The edge probably goes to Tinsley. I don’t really follow the Repubs as closely but they both seem formitable opponents. So, we’ll see. I guess I’m going to predict the slimmest of victories for Newman in the three way race. But only hold me to the Dem predictions please.
NM-3:
OK, here we have Wiviott v Lujan Jr. Lujan has all the establishment support but there have been gay rumors flying around about him, which prompted him to use his ‘girlfriend’ in a TV commercial. I don’t know why he would run from this… it is rather widely known in NM and in NM-3 I don’t think it would move any votes away from him (if anything, it would make all the white Santa Fe liberals who are considered Wiviott’s base take a second look at him. I think he botched his response.) Of course, if he is not gay, I apologize for the entire preceeding paragraph.
As for Wiviott, he first was running against Domenici, untill he retired and Wiviott’s good friend Udall stepped into the race. He has poured over $1.4 million of his own money into the district and NM-3 has NEVER seen anything like that before. And to be honest, Wiviott is exactly the type of super-liberal, environmentalist NM-3 would elect.
I am going to go against conventional wisdom here and predict the slimmist of a Wiviott victory. (For the record, if Lujan Jr. fessed up to being gay – if, infact he is – I think he would win it!) Do hold me to this prediction, and please, if I am wrong, remind me!
I’m new here, so please respond / tell me what you think of my comments. As=lso, I posted my NM-Sen prediction on the NM-Sen thread, but if you don’t want to read the whole thing, I predict a 8 point Pearce win, 46-54. I hope I’m not making a fool of myself! =P
NJ-Sen: 55-40-5. Frank wins.
AL-02: Bright and Smith
AL-05: Parker.
NH-03: Myers pulls it out
NJ-07: Kate Wittman
NM-Sen: Udall vs Wilson. Wilson wins 51-49.
NM-01: Heinrich and White
NM-02: Teague and Newman
NM-03: Lujan
IA-03 Boswell wins 54-46. Netroots collectively bangs head against well realize if they had enough guts to go for this we could have won.
CA-04. Conservative Icon Tom will pull it off in a very close race. This leaves a divided Republican Party and a great place for Charlie Brown to start in.
I think Fallon is going to win by a comfortable margin. I’ve seen his internal numbers and they’ve held up consistently for at least three months. While Boswell’s media blitz of TV and radio this week may cut Fallon’s margin down, I think he still carries it by at least 5 points (but I’m expecting bigger).
AL-02 (D): Bright
AL-02 (R): Smith
AL-05 (R): Parker
NJ-Sen (D): Lautenberg
NJ-03 (R): Myers
NJ-07 (R): Whitman
NM-Sen (R): Pearce
NM-01 (D): Heinrich
NM-01 (R): White
NM-02 (D): Teague
NM-02 (R): Tinsley
NM-03 (D): Lujan
IA-03 (D): Fallon
CA-04 (R): McClintock
——————-
A couple of notes.
1. Pearce is more conservative, has a larger base from his congressional district than Wilson does. I doubt the value of an endorsement and campaigning, especially after MS-01 when Republicans threw a lot of people in the mix.
2. Fallon over Boswell. Yes, a poll had Boswell was up big in the poll, however, Boswell hasn’t been acting like he is leading. Attacking Fallon constantly, spending a lot of money, getting help from others.
AL 2: D-Bright, R-Runoff
AL 5: D-Griffith, R-Parker
NJ 3: R-Kelly
NJ 7: R-Lance
NJ: D-Lautenberg by a wide margin (Liberal in a Dem primary – and he’s done nothing wrong)
NM 1: D-Heinrich, R-White
NM 2: D-Teague, R-Tinsley
NM 3: D-Lujan, R-who cares?
NM: Pearce by 5 (Conservative in a GOP primary – similar to Fletcher in KY last year)
IA 3: Boswell (though he’s more conservative – he’s not despised for his votes the way Lieberman is and he’s done nothing wrong in most voters’ minds – and Fallon nver raised or spent any money)
CA 4: McClintock (bigger name, more conservative in a GOP primary)
but i ain’t predicting this race.
We will be liveblogging all the New Mexico results (including State House and Senate) tomorrow evening at New Mexico FBIHOP.
Stay tuned all day for the latest.
Included will be me driving around Rio Rancho, one of the few “swing areas” in the state between Wilson and Pearce.
I’m off to buy a four pack of Red Bull now…
Tons of good primary watching in CA- it’s a popular year to run as a Democrat (go figure). I’m gonna be tracking at least a dozen just within the state, including Dems in the 50th and GOP in the 52nd locally.
Alabama:
2: R: Run off with Smith and Love. D: Bright
5: R: Run off with Parker and Guthrie
New Jersey:
Senate: R: Zimmer. D: Laughtenberg
3: R: Myers
7: R: Lance
New Mexico:
Senate: R: Wilson
1: R: White. D: Heinlich
2: R: Tinsley. D: Teague
3: Lujan
Iowa:
3: D: Boswell
California:
4: R: McClintock
52: Hunter
Correct speling is for losers! 😉
i was right on the mark for the most part though i predicted kelly in NJ3 and that Parker would win AL-5 outright (he missed by 2 points).
andy dufresne was very good – though he didn’t predict IA-3. Kyle98632 was insanely accurate – calling everything right except the NM Senate. Good job. I’ll be looking for your predictions in VA-11:)